Club 7s Qualifier Analysis (July 11)

Photo by Travis Prior - KLC Fotos

31 out of this year's 47 qualifying tournaments are now complete, and the 2017 USA Rugby Emirates Airline Club 7s National Championship field is starting to come into picture. As of July 8, three teams have already officially qualified, and another handful are more or less de facto qualified by their performance thus far. 

Pacific North Competitive Region

The Pacific North won't be resolved until July 29, as the competitive region is one of three(-ish) areas that uses a single, end-of-series tournament to determine which teams will (and won't) go to the national finals. 

So far in the region, the Washington Athletic Club (men) and Atatvus Rugby (women) have looked strong through two Pacific Northwest tournaments, as has 2016 semi-finalist Oregon Sports Union (women). The Seattle Saracens aren't playing summer 7s as an official entity this year, and most of its players have gone to Washington Athletic and Atavus. 

Northern California just started its summer 7s season this past weekend, and Life West looks good in both the men's and women's brackets. The Berkeley All Blues (two-time national champions and 2016 8th-place finisher) won the first women's stop, though it was noted that Life West was toying with player combinations and is focusing its efforts on the July 29th Pacific North Championship final. The Life West men won the first men's stop, looking dominant over a field that included past national participants such the East Palo Alto Razorbacks, Olympic Club Rugby, and San Francisco Golden Gate.

Each sub-division within the region (the Pacific Northwest and Northern California) have one qualifier remaining before they convene together for the Pacific North Championship at the Tacoma Aroma 7s on July 29. 

Officially Qualified Teams: None
De Facto Qualified Teams: None
Projected Men's Teams: Washington Athletic (#1), Life West Gladiators (#2)
Projected Women's Teams: Atavus Rugby (#1), Berkeley All Blues (#2)

Pacific South Competitive Region

The Pacific South region is halfway through its season, having completed 2/4 men's tournaments and 1/2 women's tournaments. 

Having won the first two stops, Belmont Shore Rugby is in a very solid position to attend the national finals. It would take a pretty serious turn-for-the-worst for the boys from Long Beach not to reach their 16th overall (and 11th straight) national final. Behind them, there appears to be a three-way race for 2nd place, with Old Mission Beach Athletic [OMBAC], the Santa Monica Dolphins, and the Orange County Ravens all in a competitive distance of qualifying. OMBAC currently holds a two-point series edge over Santa Monica, but Santa Monica is still yet to host a tournament (OMBAC has hosted theirs) and has qualified the past 3 years. Remaining tournaments in the men's series include the Sunsplash 7s (hosted by Belmont Shore on July 15) and the Santa Monica 7s on July 22. 

In the women's division, the two-time national champion San Diego Surfers continue to look dominant and should qualify through. Sitting in second place currently is the Tempe Ninjas, who appeared in the 2016 national championship event and who is also fighting off Santa Barbara and Santa Monica for the number two seed. The final seeds will come down to the Sunsplash 7s tournament on July 15.

Officially Qualified Teams: None
De Facto Qualified Teams: Belmont Shore Rugby (men)
Projected Men's Teams: Belmont Shore Rugby (#1), Old Mission Beach Athletic (#2)
Projected Women's Teams: San Diego Surfers (#1), Tempe Ninjas (#2)

Frontier Competitive Region

The Rugby Utah Selects have already officially qualified in the men's division, and hope to repeat as national champions. Fighting for second place is a battle of all-time greats between the Denver Barbarians and Kansas City Blues, with only one tournament remaining. Nobody is even close to the Barbos' record of 22 appearances in the national finals, and the Blues have appeared 12 times - including a national runner-up finish in 2016. Whomever finishes higher between the Barbos and Blues at the Nebraska State Games (July 22) will be taking the #2 seed to nationals. 

In the women's division, there is only one qualifying tournament (the Rocky Mountain 7s, July 29 in Glendale), and it's expected to be mostly contested between the Glendale Raptors and the Kansas City Jazz.

​Officially Qualified Teams: Rugby Utah Selects (men #1)
De Facto Qualified Teams: None
Projected Men's Teams: Rugby Utah Selects (#1), Kansas City Blues (#2)
Projected Women's Teams: Glendale Raptors (#1)

Red River Competitive Region

The Red River region has seen its women's division already place out, despite one series stop remaining. The American Rugby Pro Training Center ran away with the #1 seed, winning all of the first three tournaments. The Austin Valkyries are similarly situated at #2, having finished second at all three. 

In the men's division, only three teams remain with a chance to qualify through, and all three teams are tied in series standings points. The Austin Blacks raced out to an early lead in the standings, winning the first 7s qualifier in Austin, but the Dallas Reds (Dallas Rugby) quickly raced back into the picture with a tournament-winning performance in Oklahoma the next week. To complicate matters further, the Austin Huns rounded into form this past weekend and took the Space City 7s in Houston. As such, whichever two teams finish highest (out of the three) at the Cowtown 7s (July 22 in Fort Worth) will be punching their tickets to Minnesota. The Huns and Reds have the momentum, but the Blacks can never be counted out.

​Officially Qualified Teams: American Rugby Pro (women #1), Austin Valkyries (women #2)
De Facto Qualified Teams: None
Projected Men's Teams: Austin Huns (#1), Dallas Rugby (#2)
Official Women's Teams: American Rugby Pro (#1), Austin Valkyries (#2)

Midwest Competitive Region

This season, the midwest has a three-tournament qualifying series with a single, end-of-series qualifying tournament. However, unlike similar events in the Pacific North, South, and Atlantic North (women-only), the Midwest gives high-performing teams the ability to not put all of its hopes into one weekend: the 'golden ticket.' If a team is able to win all three tournaments leading into the Midwest Championship (July 29 in Cincinnati), it is automatically qualified as the Midwest #1 seed and qualifies for nationals without having to risk losing its spot in the final.

As it's played out, only the Chicago Lions' women's program remains able to obtain a 'golden ticket,' having won 2 of the first 3 Midwest tournaments (July 17 in Madison; July 8 in Cleveland). Just behind the Lions is 2016 nationals participant the Chicago Griffins, as well as Minneapolis Rugby - a new program that is building on the cross-club success of past programs such as Youngbloodz Rugby. The Cincinnati women's program has also made the semi-finals in consecutive tournaments and could piece it all together during the championship weekend.

In the men's division, the Chicago Lions are also performing well, having won the July 8 Rock 'n' Roll 7s in Cleveland and having finished 2nd at the Madtown 7s on June 17 in Madison, WI. Racing behind them is host-city hopeful Metropolis Rugby, as well as a Columbus Rugby (Scioto Valley) outfit participating as its own brand instead of the 1823 Rugby brand it previously used while affiliated more closely with Paul Holmes' Tiger Rugby academy. Much like their women's program, the Cincinnati Wolfhounds have also shown to be competitive - sitting third in the standings - and will have home-field advantage during the Midwest Championship. 

Officially Qualified Teams: None
De Facto Qualified Teams: None
Projected Men's Teams: Chicago Lions (#1), Metropolis Rugby (#2)
Projected Women's Teams: Chicago Lions (#1), Chicago Griffins (#2)

South Competitive Region

Much like the Pacific North, the South Competitive Region splits into sub-divisions and sends teams to the national finals based on a single, end-of-series tournament. Different from the Pacific North, however, is that the South splits into far more areas.

In the men's division, there are four separate qualifying competitions that lead to the South Championship, divided by the area's four unions: Carolinas, Florida, Georgia, and the True South. For the women's division, the region only splits into two competitive regions, as True South teams don't look to contend, and only the Atlanta Harlequins wish to contend out of Georgia. As such, the women's tournaments are only in the Carolinas and Florida.

Though sub-region qualifying isn't complete (the Carolinas and Georgia still have 1 stop each), the picture for the South Championship being held in Atlanta on July 22 is coming into focus.

In the women's division, it appears as though Orlando Rugby (Florida #1), the Miami Amazons (Florida #2), Phoenix Rugby (Florida #3) and the Atlanta Harlequins are a lock to compete at the South Championship. The Carolinas competition is more complicated, but some combination between the Columbia Bombshells, Southern Pines Rugby, and Charlotte Rugby should be in attendance. Historically, the women's division has been dominated by Atlanta and the Florida teams. 

For the men's division, the picture is essentially complete for the South Championship. From the True South, New Orleans Rugby, who've appeared in 4 out of the last 6 national tournaments, advances - as does the upstart Memphis Blues 7s program. From Florida, both Miami Rugby and the Boca Raton Buccaneers advance. In the Carolinas, Charlotte Rugby and Southern Pines Rugby both appear to be a lock despite having one more tournament to play. Finally, from Georgia, Legion of Doom Rugby should compete alongside newcomer Optimus Rugby. Optimus appears to be something of an Atlanta-based all-star team, hoping to surpass the previous efforts by single club Atlanta Old White (who has appeared at nationals 7 times but hasn't finished higher than 6th). 

​Officially Qualified Teams: None
De Facto Qualified Teams: None
Projected Men's Teams: Optimus Rugby (#1), New Orleans Rugby (#2)
Projected Women's Teams: Orlando Rugby (#1), Miami Amazons (#2)

Atlantic North Competitive Region

A week ago, the Atlantic North area didn't look very interesting on paper, despite having several of the strongest clubs in the country and arguably the nation's deepest men's division. Then, this past weekend, Bulldog Rugby out of Connecticut won the Hell Gate 7s and turned the area on its head.

In the men's division, national powerhouse Old Blue of New York remains atop the table and should be able to qualify through (barring a 4th place finish in Saratoga). However, their status as the #1 seed is no longer as much of a lock, and the race for 2nd is about as tight as it comes. Currently, Bulldog and Mystic River Rugby (2015 third-place winners and 2016 national quarter-finalists) are tied for second place. In fourth sits 2017 15s national runner-up New York Athletic (NYAC), despite finishing second twice in three tournaments. NYAC, however, is only 1 point behind second place and 5 points behind series leaders Old Blue. As such, it's all coming down to the Saratoga 7s, which is the final Atlantic North series stop on July 15 in Saratoga Springs, NY. It's likely that whomever finishes highest among Bulldog, Mystic, and NYAC will join Old Blue in Minnesota, but nothing is for certain.

In the women's division, the region sub-divides like the Pacific North, splitting competitions among the Empire and New England unions, with a single, end-of-series tournament (Saratoga 7s; July 15) to decide the teams advancing to nationals. So far, Beantown has looked dominant in New England and New York Rugby dominant in Empire, but the runner-up in Empire has also been a two-time national runner up at the national championship (Old Blue of New York, in 2014 & 2016). Accordingly, the Atlantic North Championship largely looks like a 3-team race, though Boston Rugby has advanced through the past two years and can't be counted out.

Officially Qualified Teams: None
De Facto Qualified Teams: None
Projected Men's Teams: Old Blue of New York (#1), Bulldog Rugby (#2)
Projected Women's Teams: New York Rugby (#1), Beantown Rugby (#2)

Mid-Atlantic Competitive Region

The Mid-Atlantic region has only completed two out of its four tournament stops, but four of its five seeds can probably rest easy that they'll qualify through to Nationals.

The Mid-Atlantic gets three seeds to nationals in the women's division, and only four teams in the region are seriously looking to qualify. It would take a complete debacle for the defending national champion Scion Sirens to not qualify after they've won the fist two tournaments. Similarly, NOVA (Northern Virginia Rugby) is in a very strong position after finishing second twice through the first two stops. Fighting for the third seed is Philadelphia Rugby and the D.C. Furies, though Philadelphia currently holds an edge after finishing third in the first two tournaments. The Furies will likely need to finish ahead of Philadelphia in both of the last stops to take their place in Minnesota.

In the men's division, newcomers the Beltway Elite and stalwarts the Schuylkill River Exiles are in very strong positions to qualify, though seeding is currently too hard to predict. The pair have dominated the first two Mid-Atlantic stops, and a shuffling undercard (3rd-8th) has given both teams a lot of breathing room over contenders such as Northern Virginia Rugby (NOVA), Rocky Gorge Rugby, and the Norfolk Blues. Beltway and Schuylkill would probably have to miss the semi-finals in one or both of the last two stops (Blue Ball 7s, July 15 in Wilmington; Schuylkill River 7s, July 22 in Philadelphia) to not qualify for a trip to the National Sports Center. Although Beltway currently sits atop the standings, Schuylkill likely has the momentum since the last two stops are in its backyard and it won the most recent qualifier.

​Officially Qualified Teams: None
De Facto Qualified Teams: Scion Sirens (women), Northern Virginia Rugby (women), Beltway Elite (men), Schuylkill River Exiles (men)
Projected Men's Teams: Schuylkill River Exiles (#1), Beltway Elite (#2)
Projected Women's Teams: Scion Sirens (#1), Northern Virginia Rugby (#2), Philadelphia Rugby (#3)

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Projected Pools for the 2017 USA Rugby Emirates Airline Club 7s National Championship

Men's Pool A
Rugby Utah
Bulldog Rugby
Schuylkill River Exiles
​Dallas Rugby

Men's Pool B
Old Blue of New York
Metropolis Rugby
Austin Huns
​Life West Gladiators

Men's Pool C
Kansas City Blues
Belmont Shore Rugby
Optimus Rugby
​Beltway Elite

Men's Pool D
Chicago Lions
Washington Athletic
Old Mission Beach Athletic
​New Orleans Rugby

Women's Pool A
Scion Sirens
Berkeley All Blues
​Glendale Raptors
Tempe Ninjas

Women's Pool B
New York Rugby
Philadelphia Rugby
Chicago Lions
Austin Valkyries

Women's Pool C
American Rugby Pro
San Diego Surfers
Miami Amazons
Beantown Rugby

Women's Pool D
Atavus Rugby
Northern Virginia Rugby
Orlando Rugby
Chicago Griffins